Where the market is now
The latest job market numbers dropped this morning and, if you were waiting for a September hiring surge, it didn't happen.
Just 29,000 new jobs were created in September, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
Even more telling: job growth has averaged just 45,000 per month over the past 12 months.
And the revisions aren't great either. July's numbers were revised from a gain of 21,000 jobs to a LOSS of 10,000, while August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
Combined, those revisions wiped another 60,000 jobs from previously reported totals.
Hiring has clearly cooled, but those headline numbers still don't tell the whole story.
For the past several months, I've been watching what I'm calling the "real job market index," which includes people who are underemployed along with those counted in the base unemployment numbers.
Here's where my "real job market index" stands this month:
7.1 million people are unemployed (1.9 million of these for 27+ weeks)
4.5 million people are employed part-time for economic reasons
5.8 million people are not counted in the labor force but want a job
= 17.4 million people who are unemployed or underemployed
Interestingly, that number has improved from the 18–19 million range I've reported previously.
You would think that would mean some relief for job seekers, but long-term unemployment remains high. Those 1.9 million people who have been unemployed for 27+ weeks now represent 27.1% of all unemployed workers.
So, where should you look for new opportunities?
I've been encouraging job seekers to look beyond the big companies and that advice continues to hold.
Companies with fewer than 250 employees accounted for approximately 4.1 million hires in August. Companies with 5,000+ employees accounted for just 91,000 hires.
Let's dig into things a little more: At companies with 5,000+ employees, the job opening rate was 5.2%, while the hiring rate was only 2.1%.
At companies with 1,000-4,999 employees, the job opening rate was 5.6%, versus a 3.1% hiring rate. Meanwhile, companies with 10-49 employees had a 4.4% job opening rate and a 4.3% hiring rate.
In other words, smaller companies are more serious about hiring than larger companies: if they post a position, they are looking to fill it quickly while larger companies aren't necessarily in a rush (if they fill that role at all).
To compound the situation, people are still holding onto their jobs for dear life. The quit rate at companies with 5,000+ employees was just 1.1% in August. Even at companies with 1,000-4,999 employees, it was only 1.7%.
That's important because quits can be another indicator of how willing workers are to leave one job for another. Right now, we're seeing far less movement at large companies than at smaller employers.
Put it all together and we're still looking at a stuck job market: Low job growth, slow hiring, high long-term unemployment, and limited movement among people who already have jobs.
If I were looking for work right now, I would expand my search beyond the biggest names and focus on smaller and mid-sized organizations. Use your network to uncover opportunities before they're widely advertised. And don't assume that a job posting means a company is ready to hire because clearly companies are taking longer to hire (if they actually hire at all).
The September surge may not have shown up in the numbers, but that doesn't mean your opportunity isn't out there.
It may just take longer and require you to look in places you hadn't considered before.
Are you feeling invisible?
Let's fix that.
I'm committed to helping you become more visible and find a new role, so through the end of the year, I'm going to offer the Ageless Careers Toolkit for $29 (use the coupon code NEWJOB2026 at checkout).
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Other ways that I can help:
Question of the Week: Do you have a question that you would like to have answered in the Question of the Week? If so, reply to this email and let me know what's on your mind.
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If you'd like to work together, you can learn more about my services on my website or set up a call here.
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Take care of yourself and have a wonderful weekend!
Colleen
