2026 job market update: trends and strategy for experienced leaders
The most recent job market numbers dropped this morning and, while the headlines aren’t surprising, the details still matter.
The unemployment rate is back to 4.4% with 50,000 new jobs created last month.
Hiring has clearly cooled, and the market remains uneven depending on your sector and seniority.
Beyond the headlines, I've been watching what I'm calling the "real job market index," which includes the number of people who are underemployed along with those who are counted in the base unemployment numbers. Here's where the "real job market index" is coming out this month:
7.5 million people are unemployed (1.9 million of these for 27+ weeks)
5.3 million people are employed part-time for economic reasons
6.2 million people are not counted in the labor force but want a job
= 19 million people who are unemployed or underemployed
With a total US labor force of roughly 170 million workers, we're looking at an 11.1% unemployment + underemployment rate.
It’s a powerful reminder: if you’re looking for work right now, you are not alone.
While the month-to-month numbers didn’t shift much, a look back over the past year reveals some important trends:
- Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) is up by 397,000 over the year, totaling 1.9 million people.
- Those working part-time for economic reasons increased by 980,000 over the year, up to 5.3 million workers.
- 6.2 million people are not counted in the labor force but want a job — up 684,000 from last year.
- Total job growth in 2025 was 584,000, which is significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024.
- Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% over the past 12 months — a modest increase in light of inflation.
- Federal government employment declined by 277,000 from its January peak — a 9.2% drop.
These trends highlight a labor market that’s still shifting, which helps explain why so many capable, experienced professionals feel stuck, sidelined, or underutilized right now.
Of course, when the job market is tight, it becomes an "employer's market" where companies hold back on pay increases. I recently talked with the Pittsburgh Business Times to share the salary trends that I'm seeing, including Fortune 50 leaders taking significant pay cuts in order to pay the bills.
Overall, pay increases are expected to flatten out in 2026, with average raises holding around 3–3.5%. Since hiring isn't expected to pick up any time soon, we're in a holding pattern as far as compensation.
With all of this said, I am still seeing folks land great roles, like my 70-year-old client who recently landed a new analyst role (as featured in AARP). Yes - it may take longer to land and it may take more work than it might have in another market, but there are opportunities out there. I'm rooting for you!
LinkedIn posts of the week
8 questions to ask before your job search
Poll: Your #1 career concern for 2026 (1700+ votes)
Meathead Movers EEOC ruling
Gen X and Baby Boomer job search tips
Posting on LinkedIn transformed my business
Question of the week
"There seems to be a debate on LinkedIn as to whether or not to "tailor your resume" to the job description. What's your take? Additionally, if you tailor your resume to job descriptions, should a person have multiple LinkedIn profiles to align with the types of jobs that are applying for? For example, if I have skills in sales, sales leadership, and operations, that's three distinct job categories that I'm applying for and tailoring my resume will not align with my LinkedIn profile."
When I'm working with clients, I typically deliver one base resume that you make very minor tweaks to. (In working with 1000+ clients, I've only had a handful of cases where people needed 2 distinctly different resumes). Maybe you change the resume headline to match the target role or you change the order of the bullets around to emphasize certain skills - but that's it. That's why it's important to identify your career goals before you get started - so that you write a resume that you can use to apply for all of the roles that you are applying for. You should only have one LinkedIn profile that encompasses all of your skills (and that LinkedIn profile should be aligned with your resume).
Do you have any questions about how to position yourself in this job market? Any potential LinkedIn poll questions that you would like to see? Reply to this message and let me know what's on your mind.
Ready to change things up in your career?
I'm committed to helping you become more visible and find a new role, so through January 11, I'm offering the Ageless Careers Toolkit (my complete guide for job search, resume, LinkedIn, interviewing, and cover letter best practices) for $29 ($249+ value).
Use the coupon code NEWJOB2026 at checkout
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Want more personalized help? My January resume, LinkedIn profile upgrade, and 1:1 one-hour strategy call spots are almost full - learn more about my offerings here and set-up a 15-minute pre-engagement discussion here.
Take care of yourself -
Colleen
ps: Feel free to forward this along to a friend who may be out of work or underemployed to let them know that they aren't alone. And if you aren't currently an email newsletter subscriber, you can sign-up and grab your free 43-page resume guide here.
